UTSA Center for Public Opinion Research releases new election poll results ahead of early voting

APRIL 15, 2025 — The UTSA Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) distinguishes itself as the only independent organization conducting public polling ahead of San Antonio’s municipal elections. The center is playing an important role in delivering trusted, data-driven insights that keep the community informed. Most recently, CPOR issued its second survey gauging voter support in the upcoming mayoral election.

“What makes this new UTSA poll so important is the large number of candidates and the fact that voters are still forming opinions. In a race this crowded, polling becomes essential, not just to assess voter preferences but to identify the issues that matter most to San Antonians. This is what sets our center apart. We’re not just tracking who is leading; we’re helping define what matters,” said Bryan Gervais, UTSA associate professor of political science and CPOR director.

In results from its most recent poll, conducted last week, San Antonio voters are slightly more certain about how they will vote in the May 2025 mayoral election, but a plurality are still undecided. The poll shows 30% of voters don’t know who they will vote for, down from 35.2% in a survey CPOR conducted in February, after the filing deadline for candidates.

Gina Ortiz Jones increased her lead in voter support to nearly 13%, a 3.5-point gain from February. John Courage followed next at slightly more than 7%, compared to nearly 8% support in the February poll.

Beto Altamirano and Rolando Pablos had the largest upticks in voter support. Altamirano’s support increased by 3 points, from 4% to just under 7%, putting him third in terms of overall voter support. Pablos’ support increased 4%, from less than 1% in February to 5% in this poll.

Five other candidates — Manny Pelaez, Melissa Cabello Havrda, Adriana Rocha Garcia, Clayton Perry and Tim Westley — each have between 3% and 5% support, according to UTSA’s poll. None of the other 18 candidates polled above 1%.

Just over 15% of voters, or one in seven, are unfamiliar with any of the 27 candidates vying to replace Ron Nirenberg, a slight decline from the more than 20% of voters surveyed in the first poll.

“This mayor’s race is very fluid given the number of voters who are unsure. A lot could change as the campaigns ramp up during early voting and voters make up their minds. However, if voters keep breaking the way that they have, it appears that Jones is in a pretty solid position to advance to a run-off election,” Gervais said.

CPOR’s newest poll queried 685 San Antonio likely voters to gain their thoughts and opinions about the upcoming mayoral race. CPOR also asked the likely voters about downtown redevelopment, including Project Marvel and a new Missions stadium, and trust in all levels of government. The poll was administered in English and Spanish via email from April 7 to April 9 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.

“This is what sets our center apart. We’re not just tracking who is leading; we’re helping define what matters.”

Key Highlights

• 30% of voters remain undecided, and just over 15% said they are unfamiliar with any of the 27 candidates running for San Antonio mayor. Gina Ortiz Jones remains in the lead with nearly 13% of voter support. Among the top group of candidates polling at least 3% or higher, all nine hold statistically significant leads over the other 18 candidates.

• Voter support for Project Marvel shows slight shifts. Those opposed to the city and county’s plans to redevelop a portion of Hemisfair in downtown San Antonio into a sports and entertainment district rose to 44%, up from 36% in February. About 34% are in favor, down from 41% previously. Eighteen percent of voters were not sure and 4% had no opinion.

• Support for a Bexar County venue tax to pay for a new Spurs arena showed a subtle change. Regardless of voters’ overall position on Project Marvel, 44% are against using a venue tax to fund some of the cost of a new arena, with 40% in favor. In February, opposition was at 41% and support was at 42%. Fifteen percent of voters remain unsure.

• Public support of a San Antonio Missions minor league baseball stadium north of downtown dipped in support. The percentage in favor of the plan fell from 41% to 34%, with 32% opposed and about 18% unsure. This is the first time support for the Missions Stadum plan has slipped below 40% in CPOR’s polling.
  
  
• Similar to previous CPOR surveys, voters remain more positive about the direction San Antonio is moving in as opposed to the direction of the state and country. Forty-eight percent believe San Antonio is headed in the right direction (50% in February) with the majority believing the state (53%) and country (62%) were moving in the wrong direction (compared to 56% and 60% in February, respectively).

Established in 2023, CPOR is a nationally accredited, academic public opinion research center that produces and facilitates basic and applied opinion research to broaden the shared understanding of important political and governance issues. The center is certified by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)’s Transparency Initiative. AAPOR is an organization comprised of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S., with members from academia, media, government, the non-profit sector and private industry. As a member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, CPOR practices transparency in reporting its survey-based research findings.

Survey Methodology

Stratified registration-based sampling (RBS) was used to select the sample. Registered voters with verified email addresses and residential addresses in the City of San Antonio were stratified into three categories, based on personal vote history in prior San Antonio mayoral elections: voters, abstainers, and new registrants with no vote history. Estimates of the rates at which each of the three strata were expected to vote in the May 2025 election were then produced based on an analysis of previous San Antonio mayoral elections: the rates at which 2017 voters, abstainers and new registrants voted in the 2019 election were calculated, as were the rates for these groups in the 2021 and 2023 elections. Weighted average turnout rates for each of the groups were then used as the benchmark voting rates for the May 2025 election. The number of registered voters in each stratum was then multiplied by the estimated voting rates to produce the fraction of the sample each stratum should make up. After the survey was conducted, data were weighted by these strata fractions and self-reported likelihood of voting in the May 2025 municipal election. Individuals who indicated they were unlikely to vote at all were disqualified from the survey.

— Michelle Gaitan